• Pot Odds Poker Explained Against
• Pot Odds Poker Explained Odds

Pot odds is a fundamental and mathematical concept used in poker. Before you understand what pot odds are, take a look at the options below: Option A: If you risk 1 cookie, you will get 2 cookies. Calculating your pot odds and equity in a hand in poker are vital in giving you the information you need to make the statistically correct decision. Poker pot odds take into account the number of “outs” you have (cards that can improve your hand) and relate them to the amount of money you have to cal l to see another card. This calculation is used to ultimately determine whether calling to “chase” your draw is a profitable play over the long run. Pot odds are defined as the ratio between the size of the pot and the bet facing you. For example, if there is $4 in the pot and your opponent bets $1, you are being asked to pay one-fifth of the pot in order to have a chance of winning it. A call of $1 to win $5 represents pot odds of 5:1.

Poker in 2018 is as competitive as it has ever been. Long gone are the days of being able to print money playing a basic ABC strategy.

Today your average winning poker player has many tricks in their bags and tools in their arsenals. Imagine a soldier going into the heat of battle. Without his weapons, he is practically useless, and chances of survival are extremely low.

If you sit down at a poker table without any preparation or general understanding of poker fundamentals, the sharks are going to eat you alive. Sure you may get lucky once in a blue moon, but over the long term, things won’t end well.

With the evolution of poker strategy, you now have many tools at your disposal. Whether it be online poker training sites, free YouTube content, poker coaching, or poker vlogs, there’s no excuse to be a fish in today's game.

Some of the essential fundamentals you need to be utilizing that every poker player should have in their bag of tricks whether you are a Tournament or Cash Game Player are concepts such as hand combinations (Also known as hand combinatorics or hand combos).

Hand Combinations and Hand Reading

If you were to analyze a large sample of successful poker players you would notice that they all have one skill set in common: Hand Reading

What does hand reading have to do with hand combinations you might ask?

Well, poker is a game of deduction and to be a good hand reader, you need to be good at correctly ranging your opponents.

Once you have assigned them a range, you will then need to start narrowing that range down. Combinatorics is one of the ways we do this.

So what is combinatorics? It may sound like rocket science and it is definitely a bit more complex than some other poker concepts, but once you get the hang of combinatorics it will take your game to the next level.

Combinatorics is essentially understanding how many combos each of your opponent's potential holdings are and deducing their potential holdings utilizing concepts such as removal and blockers.

There are 52 cards in a deck, 13 of each suit, and 4 of each rank with 1326 poker hands in total. To simplify things just focus on memorizing all of the potential combos to start:

• 16 possible hand combinations of every unpaired hand
• 12 combinations of every unpaired offsuit hand
• 4 combinations of each suited hand
• 6 possible combinations of pocket pairs

Here is a short video example of using combinatorics to count the number of ways a non-paired hand AK can be arranged (i.e. how many combos there are):

So now that we have this memorized, let's look at a hand example and how we can apply combinatorics in game.

We hold A♣Q♣ in the SB and 3bet the BTN’s open to 10bb with 100bb stacks. He flats and we go heads up to a flop of

A♠ 5♦ 4♦

We check and our opponent checks back with 21bb in the middle

Turn is the 4♥

We bet 10bb and our opponent calls for a total pot of 41bb

The river brings the 9♠

So the final board reads

A♠ 5♦ 4♦ 4♥ 9♠

We bet 21bb and our opponent jams all in leaving us with 59bb to call into a pot of 162bb resulting in needing at least 36% pot equity to win.

Our opponent is representing a polarized range here. He is either nutted or representing missed draws so we find ourself in a tough spot. This is where utilizing combinatorics to deduce his value hands vs bluffs come into play. Now we need to narrow down his range given our line and his line. Let's take a look at how we do this...

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Blockers and Card Removal Effects

First, let's take a look at the hands we BLOCK and DON’T BLOCK

Since we hold an Ace in our hand and there is an Ace on the board, that only leaves 2 Ace’s left in the deck. So there is exactly 1 combo of AA.

We BLOCK most of the Aces he can be holding, so we can REMOVE some Aces from his range.

We do not BLOCK the A♦ as we hold A♣Q♣, and the A on the board is a spade, so it is still possible for him to have some A♦x♦ hands.

We checked flop to add strength to our check call range (although a bet with a plan to triple barrel is equally valid in this situation SB vs BTN) and because of this our opponent may not put us on an A here.

If he is a thinking player his jam can exploit our thin value bet on the river turning his missed straight/flush draws into a bluff to get us to fold our big pocket pairs and even make it a tough call with our perceived weak holdings.

The problem in giving him significant credit for this part of his bluffing range is the question of would he really shove here with good SDV (Showdown Value)?

These are the types of questions we must ask ourselves to further deduce his range along with applying the combinatoric information we now have.

Now, let's look at all the nutted Ax hands our opponent can have.

If he has a nutted hand like A4 or A5, and we assume he is only calling 3bets with Axs type hands, the only suited combo of those hands he can have are exactly A♥5♥. He can’t have A♦5♦ or A♦4♦ because the 4 and the 5 are both diamonds on the board blocks these hands.

Lets take a look at all of this value hands:

There is only 1 combo of 44 left in the deck, 2 combos of A9s, 3 Combos of 55, 3 Combos of 99, 2 Combos of 45s - some of these hands may also be bet on the flop when facing a check.

So to recap we have:

1 Combo A5s, 2 Combos of A9s, 3 Combos of 55 (With one 5 on board, the number of combinations of 55 are cut in half from 6 combos to 3 combos), 1 Combo of 44, 2 Combos of 45s, 3 Combos of 99

Total: 12 Value Combos

Now we need to look at our opponent's potential bluffs

Based on the villain's image, this is the range of bluffs we assigned him:

Pot Odds Poker Explained Against

K♦Q♦(1 Combo), J♦T♦ (1 Combo), T♦9♦ (1 Combo), 67s (4 Combos)

He may also turn some other random hands with little showdown value into bluffs such as A♦2♦/A♦3♦

Total: 9 Bluff Combos

9(Bluff Combos) + 12(Value Combos) = 22

9/21 = 42% of the time our opponent will be bluffing (assuming he always bets this entire range)

11/21 = 58% of the time our opponent will be value raising

Now, this is the range we assigned him in game based on the action and what we perceived our opponents range to be.

We are not always correct in applying the exact range of his potential holdings, but so long as you are in the ballpark of that range you can still make quite a few deductions to put yourself in the position to make the correct final decision.

According to the range we assigned him, he has 11 Value Combos and 9 Bluff Combos which gives us equity of 42%. This would result in a positive expected value call as we only need 36% pot odds to call.

However, unless you are playing against very tough opponents you will not see someone bluffing all 9 combos we have assigned - most likely they will bluff in the range of 4-6 combos on average which gives equity in the range of 20-30% equity. This is not enough to call.

We ultimately made our decision based on the fact that we felt our opponent was much less likely to jam with his bluffs in this spot. Given that it was already a close decision to begin with, we managed to find what ended up being the correct fold.

Now this all may seem a bit overwhelming, but if you just start taking an extra minute on your big decisions you’d be surprised how quickly you can actually process all this information on this spot.

A good starting point is to simply memorize all of the possible hand combinations listed above near the beginning of the article.

Get access to our 30-minute lesson on Combinatorics and PokerStove by clicking on one of the buttons below:

Conclusion On Combinatorics

Eventually accounting for your opponent's combos in a hand will become second nature. To get to the point that , a lot of the work needs to be done off the table and in the lab. As you spend more time studying it and reviewing hand histories like the one above, you will find yourself intuitively and almost subconsciously using combinatorics in your decision making tree.

But the work will be worth the effort, as being able to count combos on the fly will add a new dimension to your game, allow you to make more educated decisions, become a tougher opponent to play against and move away from playing ABC poker.

Want more content like the ones in this blog post on poker combinatorics? Check out our Road to Success Course where we have almost 100 videos like this to help take your game to the next level. You can also get the first module of the Road To Success Course for Free - for more details see the free poker training videos page by TopPokerValue.com.

This is a very important lesson and can also be quite intimidating to a lot of people as we are going to discuss Poker Math!

But there is no need for you to be intimidated, Poker Maths is very simple and we will show you a very simple method in this lesson.

You won’t need to carry a calculator around with you or perform any complex mathematical calculations.

What is Poker Math?

As daunting as it sounds, it is simply a tool that we use during the decision making process to calculate the Pot Odds in Poker and the chances of us winning the pot.

Remember, Poker is not based on pure luck, it is a game of probabilities, there are a certain number of cards in the deck and a certain probability that outcomes will occur. So we can use this in our decision making process.

Every time we make a decision in Poker it is a mathematical gamble, what we have to make sure is that we only take the gamble when the odds are on in our favour. As long as we do this, in the long term we will always come out on top.

When to Use Poker Maths

Poker Maths is mainly used when we need to hit a card in order to make our hand into a winning hand, and we have to decide whether it is worth carrying on and chasing that card.

To make this decision we consider two elements:

1. How many “Outs” we have (Cards that will make us a winning hand) and how likely it is that an Out will be dealt.
2. What are our “Pot Odds” – How much money will we win in return for us taking the gamble that our Out will be dealt

We then compare the likelihood of us hitting one of our Outs against the Pot Odds we are getting for our bet and see if mathematically it is a good bet.

The best way to understand and explain this is by using a hand walk through, looking at each element individually first, then we’ll bring it all together in order to make a decision on whether we should call the bet.

Consider the following situation where you hold A 8 in the big blind. Before the flop everyone folds round to the small blind who calls the extra 5c, to make the Total pot before the Flop 20c (2 players x 10c). The flop comes down K 9 4 and your opponent bets 10c. Let’s use Poker Math to make the decision on whether to call or not.

Poker Outs

When we are counting the number of “Outs” we have, we are looking at how many cards still remain in the deck that could come on the turn or river which we think will make our hand into the winning hand.

In our example hand you have a flush draw needing only one more Club to make the Nut Flush (highest possible). You also hold an overcard, meaning that if you pair your Ace then you would beat anyone who has already hit a single pair on the flop.

From the looks of that flop we can confidently assume that if you complete your Flush or Pair your Ace then you will hold the leading hand. So how many cards are left in the deck that can turn our hand into the leading hand?

• Flush – There are a total of 13 clubs in the deck, of which we can see 4 clubs already (2 in our hand and 2 on the flop) that means there are a further 9 club cards that we cannot see, so we have 9 Outs here.
• Ace Pair – There are 4 Ace’s in the deck of which we are holding one in our hand, so that leaves a further 3 Aces that we haven’t seen yet, so this creates a further 3 Outs.

So we have 9 outs that will give us a flush and a further 3 outs that will give us Top Pair, so we have a total of 12 outs that we think will give us the winning hand.

So what is the likelihood of one of those 12 outs coming on the Turn or River?

Professor’s Rule of 4 and 2

An easy and quick way to calculate this is by using the Professor’s rule of 4 and 2. This way we can forget about complex calculations and quickly calculate the probability of hitting one of our outs.

The Professor’s Rule of 4 and 2

• After the Flop (2 cards still to come… Turn + River)
  Probability we will hit our Outs = Number of Outs x 4
• After the Turn (1 card to come.. River)
  Probability we will hit our Outs – Number of Outs x 2

So after the flop we have 12 outs which using the Rule of 4 and 2 we can calculate very quickly that the probability of hitting one of our outs is 12 x 4 = 48%. The exact % actually works out to 46.7%, but the rule of 4 and 2 gives us a close enough answer for the purposes we need it for.

If we don’t hit one of our Outs on the Turn then with only the River left to come the probability that we will hit one of our 12 Outs drops to 12 x 2 = 24% (again the exact % works out at 27.3%)

To compare this to the exact percentages lets take a look at our poker outs chart:

As you can see the Rule of 4 and 2 does not give us the exact %, but it is pretty close and a nice quick and easy way to do the math in your head.

Now lets summarise what we have calculated so far:

• We estimate that to win the hand you have 12 Outs
• We have calculated that after the flop with 2 cards still to come there is approximately a 48% chance you will hit one of your outs.

Now we know the Odds of us winning, we need to look at the return we will get for our gamble, or in other words the Pot Odds.

Pot Odds

When we calculate the Pot Odds we are simply looking to see how much money we will win in return for our bet. Again it’s a very simple calculation…

Pot Odds Formula

Pot Odds = Total Pot divided by the Bet I would have to call

What are the pot odds after the flop with our opponent having bet 10c?

• Total Pot = 20c + 10c bet = 30 cents
• Total Bet I would have to make = 10 cents
• Therefore the pot odds are 30 cents divided by 10 cents or 3 to 1.

What does this mean? It means that in order to break even we would need to win once for every 3 times we lose. The amount we would win would be the Total Pot + the bet we make = 30 cents + 10 cents = 40 cents.

Break Even Percentage

Now that we have worked out the Pot Odds we need to convert this into a Break Even Percentage so that we can use it to make our decision. Again it’s another simple calculation that you can do in your head.

Break Even Percentage

Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by (Pot odds added together)

Let me explain a bit further. Pot Odds added together means replace the “to” with a plus sign eg: 3 to 1 becomes 3+1 = 4. So in the example above our pot odds are 3 to 1 so our Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by 4 = 25%

Pot Odds Poker Explained Odds

Note – This only works if you express your pot odds against a factor of 1 eg: “3 to 1” or “5 to 1” etc. It will not work if you express the pot odds as any other factor eg: 3 to 2 etc.

So… Should You call?

So lets bring the two elements together in our example hand and see how we can use the new poker math techniques you have learned to arrive at a decision of whether to continue in the hand or whether to fold.

To do this we compare the percentage probability that we are going to hit one of our Outs and win the hand, with the Break Even Percentage.

Should I Call?

• Call if…… Probability of Hitting an Out is greater than Pot Odds Break Even Percentage
• Fold if…… Probability of Hitting an Out is less than Pot Odds Break Even Percentage

Our calculations above were as follows:

• Probability of Hitting an Out = 48%
• Break Even Percentage = 25%

If our Probability of hitting an out is higher than the Break Even percentage then this represents a good bet – the odds are in our favour. Why? Because what we are saying above is that we are going to get the winning hand 48% of the time, yet in order to break even we only need to hit the winning hand 25% of the time, so over the long run making this bet will be profitable because we will win the hand more times that we need to in order to just break even.

Hand Walk Through #2

Lets look at another hand example to see poker mathematics in action again.

Before the Flop:

• Blinds: 5 cents / 10 cents
• Your Position: Big Blind
• Your Hand: K 10
• Before Flop Action: Everyone folds to the dealer who calls and the small blind calls, you check.

Two people have called and per the Starting hand chart you should just check here, so the Total Pot before the flop = 30 cents.

Flop comes down Q J 6 and the Dealer bets 10c, the small blind folds.

Do we call? Lets go through the thought process:

How has the Flop helped my hand?
It hasn’t but we do have some draws as we have an open ended straight draw (any Ace or 9 will give us a straight) We also have an overcard with the King.

How has the Flop helped my opponent?
The Dealer did not raise before the flop so it is unlikely he is holding a really strong hand. He may have limped in with high cards or suited connectors. At this stage our best guess is to assume that he has hit top pair and holds a pair of Queens. It’s possible that he hit 2 pair with Q J or he holds a small pair like 6’s and now has a set, but we come to the conclusion that this is unlikely.

How many Outs do we have?
So we conclude that we are facing top pair, in which case we need to hit our straight or a King to make top pair to hold the winning hand.

• Open Ended Straight Draw = 8 Outs (4 Aces and 4 Nines)
• King Top Pair = 3 Outs (4 Kings less the King in our hand)
• Total Outs = 11 Probability of Winning = 11 x 4 = 44%

What are the Pot Odds?
Total Pot is now 40 cents and we are asked to call 10 cents so our Pot odds are 4 to 1 and our break even % = 100% divided by 5 = 20%.

Decision
So now we have quickly run the numbers it is clear that this is a good bet for us (44% vs 20%), and we make the call – Total Pot now equals 50 cents.

Turn Card

Turn Card = 3 and our opponent makes a bet of 25 cents.

After the Turn Card
This card has not helped us and it is unlikely that it has helped our opponent, so at this point we still estimate that our opponent is still in the lead with top pair.

Outs
We still need to hit one of our 11 Outs and now with only the River card to come our Probability of Winning has reduced and is now = 11 x 2 = 22%

Pot Odds
The Total Pot is now 75 cents and our Pot odds are 75 divided by 25 = 3 to 1. This makes our Break Even percentage = 100% divided by 4 = 25%

Decision
So now we have the situation where our probability of winning is less than the break even percentage and so at this point we would fold, even though it is a close call.

Summary

Well that was a very heavy lesson, but I hope you can see how Poker Maths doesn’t have to be intimidating, and really they are just some simple calculations that you can do in your head. The numbers never lie, and you can use them to make decisions very easy in Poker.

You’ve learnt some important new skills and it’s time to practise them and get back to the tables with the next stage of the Poker Bankroll Challenge.

Poker Bankroll Challenge: Stage 3

• Stakes: $0.02/$0.04
• Buy In: $3 (75 x BB)
• Starting Bankroll: $34
• Target: $9 (3 x Buy In)
• Finishing Bankroll: $43
• Estimated Sessions: 3

Use this exercise to start to consider your Outs and Pot Odds in your decision making process, and add this tool to the other tools you have already put into practice such as the starting hands chart.